# Where US rents rose and where they stalled, Sep 2025 to Sep 2026: our own calculation from Zillow and BLS data, 2026-10-30

## The answer first (our calculation [1] from Zillow's rent index; details below)
- Median change across the 49 metros: +2.19%. Only one metro fell: San Antonio, TX (-0.74%, $1,426 to $1,415).
- Flat Sun Belt: Denver +0.01%, Houston +0.08%, Tampa +0.43%, Las Vegas +0.47%, Austin +0.73%, Dallas +0.75%.
  Austin's typical rent is 3.4% LOWER than five years ago, the only big metro below its 2021 level.
- The fastest rises are in the Bay Area: San Francisco +11.76% ($3,082 to $3,445), San Jose +8.35% ($3,519 to $3,812).
- The old Rust Belt and Midwest keep climbing: Milwaukee +5.08%, Chicago +4.68%, Cleveland +4.48%; over five years Cleveland +32.3%, Chicago +33.2%.
- Cheapest typical rent among the 49: Louisville $1,339, Oklahoma City $1,384, Memphis $1,393, San Antonio $1,415, St. Louis $1,427.
  Dearest: San Jose $3,812, New York $3,546, San Francisco $3,445, Boston $2,987, San Diego $2,967.

## What we did
We downloaded Zillow's Observed Rent Index (ZORI, all homes plus multifamily, smoothed, monthly, by metro; file
Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_month.csv from https://www.zillow.com/research/data/, downloaded 2026-10-30, latest month September 2026)
and computed, for the 49 of the 50 largest US metros that have data, the typical asking rent in September 2025 and September 2026,
the change over the year, and the change over five years (September 2021 to September 2026).
ZORI measures asking rents on new leases (what a mover pays), not what sitting tenants pay.
For the official measure we read the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI series CUUR0000SEHA "Rent of primary residence" and CUUR0000SA0
"All items" (US city average, not seasonally adjusted) from the BLS public API (https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/CUUR0000SEHA), read 2026-10-30.

## The national picture, checked three ways
- Zillow, United States: $1,881.17 (Sep 2025) to $1,931.94 (Sep 2026) = +2.70% a year.
  Second way: the 12 monthly changes chained together give +2.6987%, the same.
- BLS rent of primary residence (all tenants): index 438.212 (Sep 2025) to 450.402 (Sep 2026) = +2.78%.
  Two different measures (new leases vs all tenants) agree within 0.08 points this year.
- BLS all items: 324.800 to 336.940 = +3.74%. So rents rose about one point less than prices in general: in real terms, rent got cheaper.
- Note: BLS has no October 2025 figure (data collection lapsed during the 2025 federal shutdown); our year-on-year figures use September, which is published.
- Over five years Zillow's US index is up 21.5% (Sep 2021 $1,590.17).

## The 49 big metros, ranked by the past year's change (Zillow ZORI)
| Metro | Sep 2025 | Sep 2026 | 1-year change | 5-year change |
| San Francisco, CA | $3,082 | $3,445 | +11.76% | +25.8% |
| San Jose, CA | $3,519 | $3,812 | +8.35% | +25.9% |
| Virginia Beach, VA | $1,761 | $1,886 | +7.07% | +29.2% |
| Milwaukee, WI | $1,474 | $1,549 | +5.08% | +29.0% |
| Chicago, IL | $2,066 | $2,163 | +4.68% | +33.2% |
| Cleveland, OH | $1,378 | $1,440 | +4.48% | +32.3% |
| Providence, RI | $2,079 | $2,166 | +4.20% | +35.6% |
| New York, NY | $3,403 | $3,546 | +4.18% | +34.5% |
| Detroit, MI | $1,453 | $1,514 | +4.15% | +23.0% |
| St. Louis, MO | $1,371 | $1,427 | +4.08% | +29.5% |
| Buffalo, NY | $1,397 | $1,451 | +3.84% | +28.2% |
| Kansas City, MO | $1,477 | $1,534 | +3.83% | +30.1% |
| Indianapolis, IN | $1,476 | $1,528 | +3.54% | +27.2% |
| Pittsburgh, PA | $1,417 | $1,467 | +3.51% | +23.5% |
| Minneapolis, MN | $1,677 | $1,736 | +3.49% | +17.3% |
| Hartford, CT | $1,931 | $1,998 | +3.48% | +32.8% |
| Philadelphia, PA | $1,842 | $1,903 | +3.32% | +22.9% |
| Riverside, CA | $2,462 | $2,533 | +2.88% | +18.8% |
| Columbus, OH | $1,482 | $1,525 | +2.87% | +23.9% |
| Cincinnati, OH | $1,481 | $1,522 | +2.80% | +28.2% |
| Baltimore, MD | $1,886 | $1,937 | +2.72% | +18.5% |
| Richmond, VA | $1,665 | $1,706 | +2.48% | +25.7% |
| Oklahoma City, OK | $1,351 | $1,384 | +2.39% | +19.5% |
| Boston, MA | $2,921 | $2,987 | +2.26% | +25.1% |
| Jacksonville, FL | $1,644 | $1,680 | +2.19% | +13.6% |
| San Diego, CA | $2,904 | $2,967 | +2.16% | +22.8% |
| Atlanta, GA | $1,805 | $1,843 | +2.10% | +12.5% |
| Louisville, KY | $1,312 | $1,339 | +2.01% | +26.6% |
| Miami, FL | $2,606 | $2,654 | +1.84% | +24.6% |
| Seattle, WA | $2,210 | $2,250 | +1.84% | +16.2% |
| Sacramento, CA | $2,228 | $2,269 | +1.83% | +13.7% |
| Los Angeles, CA | $2,878 | $2,929 | +1.77% | +18.7% |
| New Orleans, LA | $1,551 | $1,577 | +1.68% | +15.8% |
| Raleigh, NC | $1,646 | $1,669 | +1.40% | +12.1% |
| Charlotte, NC | $1,711 | $1,735 | +1.39% | +16.2% |
| Washington, DC | $2,375 | $2,407 | +1.36% | +18.4% |
| Nashville, TN | $1,781 | $1,803 | +1.20% | +12.7% |
| Memphis, TN | $1,378 | $1,393 | +1.11% | +16.0% |
| Portland, OR | $1,783 | $1,803 | +1.10% | +12.7% |
| Phoenix, AZ | $1,703 | $1,720 | +1.04% | +5.3% |
| Orlando, FL | $1,914 | $1,929 | +0.80% | +15.8% |
| Dallas, TX | $1,647 | $1,659 | +0.75% | +9.6% |
| Salt Lake City, UT | $1,632 | $1,644 | +0.75% | +12.4% |
| Austin, TX | $1,592 | $1,603 | +0.73% | -3.4% |
| Las Vegas, NV | $1,724 | $1,732 | +0.47% | +6.3% |
| Tampa, FL | $1,982 | $1,991 | +0.43% | +16.7% |
| Houston, TX | $1,636 | $1,638 | +0.08% | +10.4% |
| Denver, CO | $1,899 | $1,900 | +0.01% | +8.1% |
| San Antonio, TX | $1,426 | $1,415 | -0.74% | +3.4% |

## What this cannot tell you
- ZORI is a typical asking rent across a metro (a smoothed mean of the middle of the market), not a specific neighbourhood or unit size.
- A metro is a wide area: city-centre rents differ.
- Asking rents lead the CPI by months; CPI counts every tenant including long leases, so the two can diverge in a turning year.
- We do not explain causes (new supply, jobs); we only report what the data shows. If a cause is mentioned, say it is not from this data.
- One metro of the top 50 has no ZORI value for these months and is left out.

## Voice notes for the writer
- Lead with the answer: rents rose 2.7% in the year to September 2026, less than prices in general (3.74%), but the Bay Area jumped (San Francisco +11.8%) while the Sun Belt went flat and San Antonio fell.
- A guess fits: "Which big US metro's rent rose most in the past year?" (most guess Miami or New York; it is San Francisco).
- Cite Zillow for rents, BLS for CPI; our calculation for the changes. No causes unless labelled as not from this data. No claims of "first" or "record".